Conservation of declining migratory species is a challenging task, as the factors that may have determined their past distribution may not determine their current and future distribution. Saiga antelope Saiga tatarica populations have massively declined due to poaching. The species is now beginning to recover in Kazakhstan and protected areas are being implemented. Using 25 years of aerial monitoring data, we identified changes in the spring distribution and predicted densities of saiga to prioritize areas for protection under scenarios of climate change together with changes in disturbance and population size. Conserving the spring distribution is critical as spring calving aggregations are of particular importance to population viability.

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